As counting continues, it is clear that the 2025 Western Australian state election held this past weekend, has resulted in a decisive victory for the Labor Party, securing their third consecutive term in office.

Led by Premier Roger Cook, it appears that the Western Australian Labor Party has won 41 seats in the Legislative Assembly, with the Liberals trailing behind on five and the Nationals expected to take four. Per the ABC, nine seats are still too close to call.

Additionally, the election process itself faced scrutiny due to reports of staff and ballot shortages, leading to voter disenfranchisement. Nationals leader Shane Love has called for a parliamentary inquiry into the Western Australian Electoral Commission’s conduct, emphasising the need for a thorough investigation to uphold electoral integrity.

Key Takeaways

Labor

Despite some significant swings, ranging from 5.7% in Scarborough in Perth’s northern beaches to 26.4% in Rockingham (former Premier Mark McGowan’s electorate, which despite the swing has been retained by Labor), the victory is another huge win for Labor’s state branch, which undoubtedly is providing the Albanese Government with some comfort as the federal election looms large. In a similar trend to that which was seen in the 2024 Queensland state election, though this time with a more favourable result for Labor, the further away from the centre of Perth you go, the bigger the swing.

Liberals

In contrast to Labor’s sustained dominance in the west, the Liberal Party, despite some sizeable swings, will no doubt be licking their wounds as they reflect on a result which has left their Lower House caucus still below double digits. This poor performance will only intensify internal party debates, with notable figure Mark Trowell KC, who led a damning ­investigation into the WA Liberals’ record-breaking 2021 election defeat, already calling for the party’s entire state executive to be replaced, to address systemic issues and prevent further decline.

The Nationals

The National Party made notable gains, reclaiming the seat of Geraldton with candidate Kirrilee Warr unseating Labor’s Lara Dalton. Additionally, Lachlan Hunter succeeded former Leader of the Opposition Mia Davies in the Central Wheatbelt, reflecting the Nationals’ resilience in regional areas. The Nationals are also ahead in the seat of Warren-Blackwood, as counting continues.

What this means for the Federal Election

Looking ahead to the upcoming federal election, these state results could have significant implications. Western Australia is set to gain an additional seat, increasing its representation to 16 seats in the House of Representatives.

With Labor’s brand strongest in WA, and state results not necessarily translating into federal ones, strategists can take solace in last weekend’s state poll and remain hopeful of retaining the seats picked up at the 2022 Federal election.

The state seats which compose the Federal electorate of Swan – Belmont, Cannington and Victoria Park – recorded swings against Labor of about 10%, however a strong primary vote has seen the seats remain in Labor hands.

Inner suburban state seats within the traditionally blue-ribbon Tangney electorate (2.4%), including Bicton and Bateman (which will both remain Labor seats, with Bateman only being won for the first time by Labor in 2021), recorded some of the lowest swings against WA Labor, of 6.4% and 4% respectively. Tangney will be a seat to watch.

The newly established Division of Bullwinkel, encompassing parts of Hasluck, Durack, Swan, O’Connor, and Canning, heads into the Federal poll as a notional Labor seat, however this will likely be one of the closest contests in the state.

The state seat of Kalamunda, entirely located within Bullwinkel, is a closely contested race between Labor and the Liberals. To the north of the electorate, Swan Hills, which is partially within Bullwinkel, sees Labor maintaining an 8.7% lead despite experiencing an 18.6% swing. Near Bullwinkel’s northeastern boundary, the state seat of Central Wheatbelt remains securely in the hands of the Nationals with a 14.4% swing towards them.

Conclusion

Premier Cook has pledged to support Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s re-election efforts, aiming to leverage his state’s electoral strength to bolster federal Labor’s prospects. With a federal poll now expected in May, it remains to be seen if Federal Labor can capitalise on a solid result out west. 

If you are looking to strengthen your government engagement ahead of the federal election, Fifty Acres can help. Reach out at jo@fiftyacres.com.