What’s leading to the rise of One Nation?

Even if you’re someone that’s not politically engaged, over the past few months it’s inevitable that you’ve heard about the rise of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party, and the subsequent fall of the Liberal Party. 

Hanson herself has been an infamous Australian figure for decades but the potential of her party becoming a looming threat to the major parties was never thought to be a reality to the average Australian. However, this is the absurd political reality of 2026, and Australian’s are asking themselves, could One Nation take the Liberal Party’s spot as the major conservative party in Australia?

What does the polling show?

The South Australian Election was the first election to happen after polling showed a drastic increase in support for One Nation and its results revealed the real life implications. In this election One Nation finished second in the primary vote with 22% whilst the Liberal Party received their lowest primary vote in recorded history. To compare, One Nation’s primary vote in the South Australian election in 2022 was just 2.6%. This increase led to One Nation winning 4 lower house seats from the Liberal Party, the first seats One Nation has ever won outside of Queensland. 

You may have also recently heard about One Nation winning the Farrer by-election, but what makes this regional seat so important? Farrer is the seat of the former Liberal Party leader, Sussan Ley. After she was usurped by Angus Taylor, Sussan Ley resigned from parliament which means an election needs to be held to determine the next member for the seat. This is noteworthy because Farrer has been held by the Liberal Party for all of recorded history, but results showed that previous strong Liberal voters are now voting for One Nation. 

One Nation pulled 40% of the primary vote in the by-election whilst the Liberals only received 12%. The Liberals didn’t even make the two-party preferred contest with Independent Michelle Milthorpe receiving 28% of the primary vote, serving as the main contest for One Nation. One of the strongest Liberal party seats shifting to a seat that primarily voted for One Nation and an Independent provides concrete proof that One Nation is a serious existential threat to the Liberals.

Why are people voting for One Nation?

If I received a dime every time I heard someone say “the two major parties are the same” I’d probably have quite a lot of dimes by now. It’s a phrase that’s gone around Australian political commentary for a long time but now we’re seeing the phrase come to a head. When YouGov polling asked Southern Australian One Nation voters why they voted for One Nation, 52% said it was because they felt unrepresented by the major parties and only 23% said it was because they agreed with the parties values. 

With an ever increasing class divide, public sentiment is showing that lower-middle class people don’t feel connected to the higher class systems that claim to represent them. Parties that appeal to the working class on both sides of the political spectrum are receiving more attention than ever before, as shown with the “MAGA for Mamdani” movement which supports both the democratic socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani and republican Donald Trump due to supporters feeling that both are “outsiders that took on the party establishment with promises to up-end the system”. 

Global sentiment is showing that people want something different in government systems and this seems to be the motivation behind One Nation supporters.

Takeaways

Personally, I think this period of Australian political history is shaping up to be one of the most significant and interesting, and it’s only the beginning with a run of many elections to come in the next year. Ultimately, this shift is a response to the emerging landscape of a working class that is more politically engaged through independent media platforms that bring much needed awareness, yet also push misinformation and division. 

The public is calling for a more authentic, accessible and down to earth approach to politics and One Nation is answering, it’s up to the major parties to shift accordingly.