One Nation Then vs. Now

Victoria goes to the polls on the 28th November, and One Nation has surged into the low-to-mid 20s in some state polls. For a party that has historically struggled to convert support into seats in Victoria, this represents a significant shift. 

The last time the party surged like this was in the late 1990s, when it won more than one in five votes at the Queensland election before its parliamentary representation quickly collapsed. 

So, is history repeating itself, or is this time something different? 

The first surge

Pauline Hanson made headlines with her 1996 maiden speech, which criticised spending on Aboriginal welfare and multiculturalism, and warned that Australia was ‘in danger of being swamped by Asians’. In the 1998 Queensland election, One Nation won 22.7% of the vote and 11 of 89 seats, mostly in regional areas. At the federal election later that year, it won 8.4% of the House of Representatives vote. 

Research on the 1998 election found that race and immigration were the main drivers of One Nation’s support, alongside resentment over Indigenous affairs. Its vote was also strongest in areas experiencing relative economic decline. 

However, the surge didn’t last. One Nation lost all its Queensland MPs within the first term, amid internal disputes and organisational turmoil. According to Antony Green, 17 of the 20 MPs it elected or appointed in its first decade ultimately split from the party.

What’s the same?

• The geographic pattern: Antony Green, who has followed and reported on One Nation for nearly three decades, says its support pattern hasn’t changed: it is strongest in regional seats and outer suburbs, and weakest in the inner city. The difference today is the scale of its support. 
• Immigration: In May 2026 polling, 62% of One Nation voters ranked immigration in their top three issues, compared with 31% of all voters. It remains the issue that sets One Nation voters apart. However, economic insecurity and a sense of political abandonment may also help to explain the party’s appeal. 

What’s different?

• More voters are up for grabs: In 1987, 84% of Australians felt close to either Labor or the Coalition. By 2025, it was 55%. With fewer voters attached to the major parties, alternative parties have more opportunities to attract support. (We looked into why voters feel unrepresented in What’s leading to the rise of One Nation?)
• The Coalition’s base is shifting: Older voters, regional and rural communities, and people without university qualifications are the important groups driving One Nation’s rise. Among older, regional voters without a university degree, DemosAU estimates one in three 2025 Coalition voters has switched to One Nation.
• The political environment has changed: The Coalition’s approach to preferences is less uniform than during One Nation’s previous surge. In 1998, John Howard said the Liberals would put One Nation last in most, if not all, seats. This year, the SA Liberals recommended One Nation ahead of Labor in every seat, and the Victorian Liberals swapped preferences with One Nation at the Nepean by-election.
• Economic messages may matter more: Pollster Kos Samaras argues economic stress and a sense of abandonment are behind much of the shift.  An ANU seminar suggested that economic messages are more effective than anti-immigration messages at winning One Nation new voters, particularly from Labor.

What this means for Victoria

Recent polls have One Nation in the low to mid 20s, putting it in contention with Labor and the Coalition, though down from its mid-year highs. Roy Morgan projects it could win more than 10 lower house seats.

With three parties now polling in the 20s, preferences will ultimately decide many seats. The Victorian Liberals haven’t said publicly whether they’ll put One Nation ahead of Labor statewide, and that decision will shape how many seats One Nation wins. The other test is Melbourne’s outer suburbs, where One Nation is competing with Labor rather than the Liberals.

What this means for your organisation

• Build relationships with people, not just parties: If the 1990s are any guide, they show how quickly political allegiances can change. Relationships with individual members will likely outlast party labels, as we covered in our earlier blog: Building support across the political spectrum.
• Frame your issue around local impact: One Nation’s strongest seats are in regional and outer suburban areas. Showing what your work means for those communities gives you common ground, no matter which party the member represents. 

How we can help

Fifty Acres can help your organisation navigate the changing political landscape and strengthen your government engagement. Get in touch at jo@fiftyacres.com to discuss more.